New Publication: Assessment of Future Risks of Seasonal Municipal Water Shortages across North America
Link to main article: www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.730631/full
Perhaps one of the most salient issues facing policymakers around the world are the impacts of climate change. In a new publication by the HydroGeoscience for Watershed Management (HG-WM) lab on Frontiers in Earth Science (IF: 3.50), a clustering and multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis of 4,290 American and Canadian streamflow gauges was done to evaluate the risk of watersheds under global warming.
Using these MLR models and in calibration with the urban water usage of 47 cities across the United States and Canada, we were able to reliably predict the streamflow regimes and urban water use in most regions of the US and Canada.
From these predictions, we were able to evaluate the risk of municipal shortages from climate change. In an RCP 4.5 intermediate warming scenario, sections of the North American west coast, the Southwest, and the Deep South are at a high risk of water shortage. Shortages are also notable across the entire study area in the summer where high municipal water demands induce greater risks of water shortage. See Figure 1 below for a North American risk map.
Using these MLR models and in calibration with the urban water usage of 47 cities across the United States and Canada, we were able to reliably predict the streamflow regimes and urban water use in most regions of the US and Canada.
From these predictions, we were able to evaluate the risk of municipal shortages from climate change. In an RCP 4.5 intermediate warming scenario, sections of the North American west coast, the Southwest, and the Deep South are at a high risk of water shortage. Shortages are also notable across the entire study area in the summer where high municipal water demands induce greater risks of water shortage. See Figure 1 below for a North American risk map.
Figure 1. Boxplots of water-supply components of the risk score (equation 3) for each subregion in winter (A) and summer (B). The left panel for each region includes: the probability of an increase in streamflow in winter given the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, and one minus the present (1993–2012) winter freshwater supply, normalized to be between 0 and 1 (CS). The right panel for each region shows the same components of the risk score, but for summer. The thick black lines of the boxplots indicate the median value while the box shows the range between the first and third quantiles. The points outside the range of the whiskers can be considered as outliers. The clusters are: 1) West Coast, 2) Southwest, 3) Deep South, 4) Mid-Atlantic, 5) South-Central US, 6) Florida, 7) Hawaii, 8) Rockies, 9) Alaska, 10) Midwest, 11) Northeast, 12) West, 13) Central US, 14) Eastern Canada.
This new research can provide actionable insights as to the specific level and locales of water shortage risks for policymakers across the United States and Canada and for where public dollars should be spent towards mitigation and adaptation strategies for our changing global water system.
